I track mortgage rates over time on this website and aside from the weekly rate change, I also indicate whether they’re rising or falling.
Today, I decided to change the “mortgage rates are currently trending…” question from down to UP.
That’s the first time I’ve done that in months. In fact, it’s probably the first time I’ve set it to “up” since late 2024.
If we look at a mortgage rate chart, they’ve basically been falling since January 2025.
But now it appears the trend is no longer our friend, the first time that’s been the case for a while.
Mortgage Rates Trending Higher for the First Time in Over a Year
It’s certainly not good news. And it’s arguably pretty bad news given it comes during what should be peak spring home buying.
What started as a 5-handle 30-year fixed two weeks ago has become a firm 6-handle.
The 30-year fixed, as measured by Mortgage News Daily, has jumped from 5.99% to 6.29% in really short order.
That’s a pretty sharp move higher, only rivaled by the move in late 2024 when mortgage rates got spooked by a hot jobs report and a Trump victory.
Since Trump came into office, we’ve been trending lower, though there were a couple spikes along the way mostly related to the trade wars and tariffs.
But those never felt very real and didn’t sustain. And even then, rates stayed in a fairly tight range between 6.75% and 7%.
Once all that dust settled, mortgage rates kept marching lower throughout 2025, finally hitting the highly sought-after 5-handle in late February of this year.
It almost seems like a careful what you wish for thing now. Just days after we hit those big psychological levels, rates took off.
The driver, as we all know, has been the evolving conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a massive spike in energy costs.
That leads to inflation and inflation is the last thing we want after fighting it for the past several years.
Just How Bad Is It? And How High Will Mortgage Rates Go?
In somewhat incredible fashion, the 30-year fixed is now at its highest point of 2026, 6.29% per MND.
What’s incredible about it is mortgage rates were at 3.5-year lows just two weeks ago. Levels not seen since August 2022.
So we’ve gone from the best interest rates since late summer 2022 to the highest rates of the year in about 10 days.
By the way, mortgage rates were still in the 3% range in early 2022…pretty strange to say the least.
The questions to ask now are as follows:
How high can the 30-year fixed go again?
Is 6.5% a reasonable guess in the short term? Is a return to 7% out of the question?
Personally, I think 7% is unlikely as we’d be getting into recession talk at that point and bond yields would likely fall in response.
Remember, bond yields typically fall when there’s a geopolitical event because investors ditch risky stocks and seek the safety of bonds.
That hasn’t happened because it’s been mostly about the oil, but if it’s sustained, it eventually becomes a recession situation and yields drop historically.
You’d also get political pressure when rising mortgage rates are flanked by higher gas prices…
When will mortgage rates come back down?
The next critical question is when can we return to those 5-handle mortgage rates.
The old adage in the mortgage industry is rates are quick to rise, slow to fall. Go figure, right?
So lenders might take their sweet time lowering them if/when conditions finally warrant it.
In other words, we might have elevated rates for the entire spring home buying season and through summer as well.
Rough timing to say the least.
Read on: How to track mortgage rates.
(photo: FutUndBeidl)
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