Chase is back with another mortgage rate sale, something they’ve done several times over the past couple years.
They don’t advertise the exact amount of the discount, but common knowledge says it’s 25 basis points (0.25%).
So if the hypothetical rate offered were 7.125%, perhaps you can get a rate of 6.875% instead.
That sounds pretty good, especially swapping out a 7-handle for a 6-handle.
But maybe this new sale tells us something more, that rates could be at/near another top.
Are Mortgage Rates at the Top Again?
It’s been a rough few months for mortgage rates, culminating in them rising above 7% for the first time since early 2025.
They’re now near two-year highs, which if reached, you’d then have to start looking at those really ugly rates from late 2023.
At that time, the 30-year fixed hit a scary 8%, though at the time mortgage spreads were blown out and that’s no longer the case.
So getting back to 8% seems very unlikely at this juncture, even with bond yields elevated.
And even climbing much higher from here could be a stretch.
Remember, mortgage rates are now up a full percentage point from year-ago levels, which is a lot.
Sure, inflation has ramped up again, but it’s tied mostly to the conflict in the Middle East.
It’s not the widespread inflation we had back in 2022-2023 that touched everything.
It’s concentrated inflation that’s mostly tied to the conflict, with some AI capex and sticky services thrown in for good measure.
In other words, significantly higher interest rates might not be warranted today as they were back then.
Lock Today Before Rates Go Down?
Now back to that Chase mortgage rate sale. Typically when you’re urged to do something before it’s too late, there’s usually another opportunity.
Chase wants to ramp up its lending volume so it’s extending a discount to prospective customers.
They know rates are “high” right now and are doing their best to alleviate some of that sticker shock.
But perhaps they think rates are more or less at the top again, and offering rates below-market is a winning proposition for them.
Even a rate of 6.75% is a good deal for them if going rates are in the low-7s and there’s an expectation that we are at/near the top.
They wouldn’t mind holding a bunch of high-6% mortgages if rates stay in the mid-6s for the foreseeable future. It’s a decent return for them.
Fed Rate Hike Could Also Signal the Top Is in for Mortgage Rates
Now this is just a theory I’m positing, but it runs parallel with the thought mortgage rates could also top out with a Fed rate hike.
Yes, a Fed rate HIKE could signal the top for mortgage rates as well.
Lately, they’ve “defied” the Fed, meaning on the day the Fed hikes, mortgage rates tend to fall.
This isn’t that surprising because firstly, the Fed doesn’t set consumer mortgage rates.
Many people seem to think the Fed has a direct impact on mortgage rates. They don’t.
The Fed simply controls short-term rates, specifically their overnight lending rate known as the fed funds rate.
The 30-year fixed mortgage is anything but short, obviously.
That brings us to number two; Fed rate decisions are often baked into longer rates like the 30-year fixed well ahead of time.
So there can be a sell the news moment when it actually happens. It’s typically not a big surprise on the day.
But the market can take a breath when the Fed finally does act.
And right now it feels like the market really wants a Fed rate hike, whether warranted or not.
Read on: See how much that higher rate actually affects your payment with my mortgage rate calculator.
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