It’s shaping up to be a very bad week for mortgage rates.
After getting both a hot labor report and a hot CPI report, we got wholesale inflation this morning and fortunately it came in cooler than expected.
However, mortgage rates are probably still headed higher, or at least not falling as a result.
The 10-year treasury yield, which mortgage rates follow in relative lockstep, is back around 5.15%, the highest level in nearly a month.
And with mortgage rates already above 7.40%, a move to the wrong side of the 7s (7.50%+) isn’t out of the question next.
Wholesale Inflation Cooled a Bit, But Not Enough to Help Mortgage Rates
The producer price index (PPI), which measures what businesses pay for goods and services before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3% in October.
Economists expected prices to rise 0.4%, which was a small victory.
But the YoY number was up 6.5% from a year ago, the largest annual rise since November 2022.
The report basically reinforces what we already knew from CPI, but now puts pressure on additional Fed rate hikes beyond December.
Perhaps the Fed will hike in January too if the numbers don’t improve over the next couple months.
Those Fed rate expectations can push mortgage rates higher in the interim, as we can see in the chart above from MND.
Treasury Yields Are Heading for Their Biggest Weekly Jump Since April 2025
Between the monthly jobs report last Friday, CPI, and PPI, the 10-year yield is up around 24 basis points this week, the biggest weekly rise since April 2025.
The market is now betting on a Fed rate hike in December, and January is also looking like another 25-bp hike after that (roughly 68% odds per CME).
To make matters worse, oil is rising again too, which only adds to the inflation problem.
While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, bond traders do factor in expected hikes and in turn demand higher yields to invest in bonds.
That puts pressure on mortgage rates in the process.
Stock Selloff Not Helping Mortgage Rates Anymore?
Stocks are struggling today as well, which up until recently helped bond yields cool off.
Lately, there’s been a classic flight to safety where traders look to reduce risk and settle for the guaranteed return of a bond yielding 5%+.
But that seemed to unravel recently, even in spite of stocks like Nvidia plummeting after CEO Jensen Huang resigned Thursday.
The stock has fallen more than 20% in the last month, which would normally mean lower bond yields (and mortgage rates).
This week, however, it seems everything is taking a hit and there’s nowhere safe to run.
To make matters even more interesting, Nvidia reports earnings Tuesday with its new interim CEO.
That could have big implications for the market since Nvidia is basically the bellwether of the tech stock world right now.
That’s what I’d be keeping a close eye on next week to see where mortgage rates go next.
If the report (and presser) are at all provocative, we might see another big market dump and a move to bonds again, which would help mortgage rates.
Conversely, if the report is hunky-dory, we could see another rally in tech stocks and an exodus out of bonds, which would increase yields and mortgage rates in the process.
We also get retail sales on Tuesday, along with several Fed speakers, including the hawkish Christopher Waller.
Strong spending would add to the case for a bigger hike next month and pile the pressure on mortgage rates to return closer to the 8s again.
Read on: Compare mortgage rates and monthly payments side by side with my mortgage rate calculator.
- Mortgage Rates Climb Back Toward 7.50% as 10-Year Yield Sees Biggest Weekly Jump in Over a Year - November 13, 2026
- More Pain for Mortgage Rates as Bond Yields Jump Back Above 5.10% - November 12, 2026
- Mortgage Rates Back Under Pressure as Tech Stocks Bounce - November 11, 2026