Mortgage rates are a little better today, extending their move lower to three days in a row.
The bond market is open again and 10-year yields are slightly improved on the day as well.
We’re still around 5.20%, which should put the 30-year fixed mortgage around 7.45% or so.
So it’s not going to make or break your loan application, but it’s better than going even higher.
Whether it lasts is another story, with the important September CPI report due out tomorrow morning.
Oil Mostly Dictating Mortgage Rates Right Now
Oil prices were lower today after a weekend of fresh attacks and a deal with Russia.
President Trump said Russia agreed to supply more diesel to global markets, and the United States temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump also announced a so-called “ENERGY CEASEFIRE” between Russia and Ukraine, which Moscow didn’t actually confirm.
Even so, it was perhaps enough to avoid another increase in energy prices, especially given the escalation over the weekend between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Oil is still above $105 per barrel and somewhat close to recent highs. And could easily hit new highs if things take a turn for the worse in the Middle East.
In other words, we got some relief but it’s very much flimsy at best.
It feels more like we’re getting a “break” from more increases than we are a full reversal.
Are We Seeing a Shift From Stocks to Safe Haven Bonds?
While the story is mostly about oil right now, there’s also a sense that a flight to safety might be materializing.
It’s when investors flee the stock market and park their money in bonds instead as a way of de-risking.
We haven’t seen it in a long time because the stock market keeps moving higher, propelled by AI build out and a chip frenzy.
But at a certain point, bonds will begin to look attractive, and perhaps we’re starting to see that a little bit.
Especially if tech valuations feel a bit too rich and there’s risk of losses there instead of additional gains.
It’s one way to get mortgage rate relief without job losses and pain on Main Street, but it does mean people would feel less of the wealth effect.
That could harm home sales if prospective buyers don’t feel as rich with their portfolios no longer at all-time highs.
CPI Tomorrow Can Make or Break This Lower Mortgage Rate Trend
While I’m a tad hesitant to say mortgage rates are in a downtrend, they have strung together a few winning days in a row.
And that’s saying something because they haven’t been able to do that for months.
It’s been up, up, up since early August.
But if we get a favorable CPI report tomorrow, mortgage rates could rally even more and perhaps get back closer to 7.375% or even 7.25%.
If they can inch closer to 7% again, there might be some real momentum to get quotes back in the high-6s.
That could even be painted as a win for President Trump headed into the midterms.
Despite promising to deliver the 3% rates again, a 6-handle 30-year fixed would seem like a victory after seeing high-7s and the threat of 8% again.
But that remains to be seen and the data still needs to cooperate. If it does, you also get a Fed that has vowed to be patient despite warning of additional hikes in the future.
Read on: Compare different mortgage rates fast with my mortgage rate calculator.
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