The best way to sum up mortgage rates right now is any “good news” is simply stopping the bleeding.
You’re not seeing sizable drops when positive stuff happens. And we’ve had a few decent things happen lately.
All you’re really seeing is rates managing not to get much worse than they already are.
And perhaps narrowly avoiding a return to 7%, which would really be bad for housing market sentiment.
So is there any hope in sight? Or just more of the same?
A Win for Mortgage Rates Right Now Is Just Staying Put
Similar to the Fed not hiking rates and standing pat, mortgage rates winning right now is simply not going up.
If we can “hold the line,” it might be considered a victory.
Why? Because mortgage rates are just below their 52-week highs and in danger and reaching 7% again.
That’s the last thing you’d want for the housing market, which is already registering another poor year with home sales hovering near 30-year lows.
While the 30-year fixed is currently averaging roughly 6.75%, and 25 basis points (0.25%) isn’t a huge increase in payment for most, it’s psychological.
It’d be a big blow if the national headlines start saying mortgage rates climb back to 7%. The doom and gloom that would follow would be terrible for sentiment.
And by some accounts, sentiment is already pretty poor as it is.
So ultimately, mortgage rates simply not going up, but also not falling, is “good enough” for the moment.
Good News Not Moving the Dial Lately
If you look at recent developments, which would normally give mortgage rates a nice push lower, they’re not having the expected effect.
We had a soft labor report for July, followed by two cool inflation reports in the CPI and PPI report.
And it’s a good thing we did. Because even with those, mortgage rates only managed to come down maybe an eighth (.125%) of a percent.
In other words, instead of a 6.875% 30-year fixed, you might get quoted 6.75% instead.
That’s not a big difference, but to my main point, it kept us from going even higher.
We even got news that the Treasury was going to buy long bonds, which led to a very brief rally for the 10-year bond, which moves in lockstep with 30-year mortgage rates.
But that move lower in yields was met with a rise in yields today that more or less wiped it all out.
Since we’re seemingly on the precipice of climbing back into the 7s, there’s a lot at stake.
That’s probably the number one goal for mortgage rates right now. Stay below 7%!
Haven’t Had a 7-Handle 30-Year Fixed Since May 2025
Speaking of 7% mortgage rates, the last time we had a 7-handle for the 30-year fixed mortgage was in May of 2025.
That’s a pretty long time, and it appeared for a while that the worst was behind us.
Especially since rates kept marching lower and hit sub-6% levels at the end of February and early March.
Since then, it’s been a different story. The Iranian conflict led to surging oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, and much higher bond yields.
That resulted in significantly higher mortgage rates as well, which are now up nearly a full percentage point.
The goal, as stated, is to avoid them going up an entire percentage point and reaching the 7s again.
For me, and probably a lot of prospective home buyers, loan officers, and mortgage brokers, that would be considered a “win.”
We can talk about getting back below 6.50% and perhaps back into the 5s later.
But right now we simply need to avoid getting any worse.
Read on: Compare monthly payments fast with my mortgage rate calculator.
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