California Home Prices to Fall Another 36 Percent

May 13, 2009 No Comments »


Looks like we’ve still got some time to shop for that dream house.

Home prices in some hard-hit still have a long way to fall, according to a report released today by Fitch Ratings.

The ratings agency believes California home prices will fall another 36 percent from current levels over the next 12 to 18 months before stabilizing in late 2010.

Similarly, Florida and Arizona are forecast to see declines of more than 20 percent from today’s levels during the same period of time.

These states saw the largest run ups in home prices, with values more than doubling between 2002 and 2006; home prices in these three states have already fallen 40 percent on average.

“Though substantial further home price declines are still to occur, it does appear that the new data is not indicating declines beyond those already anticipated,” said Group Managing Director and U.S. RMBS group head Huxley Somerville, in a release.

“Fitch expects that declines will continue for at least a year before home prices reach bottom.”

These three states also happened to account for more than 50 percent of the overall non-agency mortgage origination dollar volume over the past four years.

Other “high-volume states” such as Texas and Illinois are only anticipated to see further declines of one percent and nine percent respectively, while New York and New Jersey are expected to see further declines of 11 percent and 20 percent respectively.

For the nation as a whole, Fitch expects home prices to fall a further 12.5 percent on average, with price stabilization beginning in late 2010.

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